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Guest writer Sean Alexander examines the upcoming municipal elections through the prism of the opposition strategy, or lack thereof. If they hope for any chance at a strong showing, some major changes need to made quickly.

Phoenix | What a difference a year makes. Last April, Georgia’s numerous opposition parties staged daily protests outside government buildings against what they saw as President Mikheil Saakashvili’s mismanagement and autocracy, including the war with Russia over South Ossetia. It was enthralling to see such notable public figures as Nino Burjanadze, Irakli Alasania, and Levan Gachechiladze working in unison toward the goal of removing Saakashvili from power. Ultimately, they failed in their bid, but they did manage to secure a small victory – direct elections for Tbilisi’s mayor. Flash forward to a year later and see how the opposition has squandered that victory.

Alasania (Alliance for Georgia), arguably the current golden boy of the opposition, has gone back and forth with the idea of supporting a single opposition candidate – in essence, he has sought to reassemble last spring’s seeming unity, with the exception of fellow opposition member Zurab Nogaideli (Movement for Fair Georgia) because of his pro-Moscow orientation. Though to be fair, Nogaideli has not been the only opposition figure to have courted the Kremlin in recent months. Yet plans for a single candidate fell through. And instead of forging a new unity out of political necessity, the multifarious opposition factions saw the situation another way and figured too much was at stake to give a single candidate free reign against Saakashvili’s United National Movement.

To be sure, Alasania is not the only candidate. In fact, because of the splintered opposition, there are almost too many candidates to count and likely too many to ensure victory. According to the rules of the election, agreed to by both the administration and certain elements of the opposition, the victor will need to secure at least 30 percent of the vote to win. On one hand, there is some logic to fielding a greater the number of candidates, which theoretically could draw enough votes away from any one candidate to reach the threshold, making it harder for incumbent and presumptive United National Movement candidate Gigi Ugulava to win. At the same time, however, having so many opposition figures vying for the same position may only disperse the vote tallies from a limited pool of opposition-leaning voters or just confuse the average voter, who will be unable to distinguish between the various candidates. Add to that the (probably real) allegations of media and institutional bias for Ugulava, it’s hard to see anyone other than the UNM candidate winning.

In March, Ghia Nodia wrote an article published on RFE/RL in which he astutely argued that “if the opposition is unable to achieve victory even in Tbilisi, there is really no hope of winning a national election.”[1] Make no mistake about it. Next month’s election is as close as the opposition will get to a no confidence vote against President Saakashvili before his term expires in 2013. It therefore boggles the mind that the various opposition parties and leaders are jockeying for positions to suit their own personal ambitions rather than keeping their collective eye on the prize that they fought so hard to get. Others, like Nino Burjanadze, are simply boycotting the election, but to do so is to do a disservice to everyone who came out to protest in the streets of Tbilisi last year. The goal should be to encourage as much participation as possible, especially if Tbilisi is the location in which one can find the most anti-Saakashvili sentiment.

But does that mean uniting behind Irakli Alasania, as fellow Alliance member Sozar Subari would like? [2]

That’s not for anyone but them to decide, although if the cards are truly stacked against the opposition as is claimed, then supporting a high-profile figure that already has built-in name recognition may very well be the best chance to unseat incumbent Ugulava. This in mind, it would be wise for the opposition movement to consider the ‘what if’ scenarios to realize that they currently stand little chance of scoring a victory if they continue with the present course. They need to come up with a more viable plan and fast. The election is only seven weeks away.

Footnotes

[1] http://www.rferl.org/content/Georgias_Opposition_Faces_A_Choice_Between_Unity_And_Principles/1979477.html
[2] http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=22138

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